File this under “Join the Queue to See Hamas Fall.”

And as a new stage in the game of brinksmanship that will probably end in Hamas’ climbing down from its old rhetoric. This will probably happen faster if they’re allowed to do so without losing face.

Hamas had some success on a fundraising tour of the Gulf. They got a cordial welcome in Moscow. But Russia insisted that funding was conditional on Hamas’ recognition of Israel and repudiation of violence. Geidar Dzhemal’s remarks to Iran’s official news agency yesterday, for all their rhetorical bluster, confirmed that Russia isn’t planning to pony up any time soon. But they also confirmed that Moscow is playing a double game.

I’m still tentatively predicting that Hamas will stay in power, but that international donors will be able to force most of the concessions they need to make continued funding possible. So far Hamas has played a terrible hand very well. If they can keep it up, they might just ride this out.

How exactly do those who would wish Hamas out of power think that’s going to happen? If the idea is to starve the Palestinians out of supporting Hamas, they need to come up with a better plan. People get irritable when they’re hungry. Better to leave Hamas a window to go mainstream without losing face. Hamas keeps pointing to that window. I hope both sides will leave it open. Things will only get really dangerous when it closes.

Technorati Tags: Hamas, Israel, Palestine, Palestinians, United States, EU

(Post-Script: Canada cut aid too, though I understand the MFA guys in Ottawa recently got an earful from the guys on the ground about that decision.)